Surveillance of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analyses
| Autor: | Michael G. Ison, Danielle Resnick, Michael J Boctor, Lori A. Post, Kasen Culler, Sarah B Welch, Robert L. Murphy, Chad J. Achenbach, James F. Oehmke, Charles B. Moss, Janine White, Lauren Nadya Singh |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
020205 medical informatics
Europe SARS-CoV-2 Luxembourg Denmark COVID transmission jerk Greenland Slovenia Iceland 02 engineering and technology law.invention Europe surveillance metrics 0302 clinical medicine Arellano-Bond estimator Public health surveillance Europe COVID Belgium law Germany Epidemiology Pandemic 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Public Health Surveillance 030212 general & internal medicine GMM Longitudinal Studies Bulgaria Finland Czech Republic Netherlands Greece Norway San Marino Belarus COVID 7-day lag second wave Europe COVID surveillance system Montenegro Europe Trend analysis Transmission (mechanics) Italy Austria Albania Europe econometrics wave two dynamic panel data France Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Europe Public Health Surveillance Ukraine Serbia Switzerland Estonia medicine.medical_specialty Slovakia Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) European COVID transmission acceleration global COVID surveillance Croatia Health Informatics SARS-CoV-2 surveillance Vatican City 03 medical and health sciences Andorra medicine Humans generalized method of the moments COVID transmission deceleration Bosnia and Herzegovina Sweden Original Paper Hungary Portugal business.industry SARS-CoV-2 Romania Public health Monaco Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Outbreak COVID-19 Lithuania Moldova Latvia United Kingdom Spain Isle of Man Poland business European COVID transmission speed Ireland Liechtenstein Demography |
| Zdroj: | JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol 7, Iss 4, p e25695 (2021) JMIR Public Health and Surveillance |
| ISSN: | 2369-2960 |
| Popis: | BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.MethodsWe performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsNew COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to –0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (–1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).ConclusionsThe United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|