The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends
| Autor: | Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz, Krzysztof Woźniak, Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
COVID-19 Vaccines pneumococcal vaccine Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Google Trends Article Pneumococcal Vaccines 03 medical and health sciences Polio vaccine 0302 clinical medicine Pandemic Econometrics medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Autoregressive integrated moving average Pandemics BCG vaccine flu vaccine HPV vaccine SARS-CoV-2 Exponential smoothing Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Linear model COVID-19 vaccination programs medicine.disease Poliomyelitis Search Engine 030104 developmental biology Geography Pneumococcal vaccine Medicine COVID-19 vaccine Predictive modelling |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume 18 Issue 15 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 7841, p 7841 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 1660-4601 |
| Popis: | Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally overwhelmed all sectors of life. The fast development of vaccines against COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the course of the pandemic. Methods: Global data from Google Trends was analyzed for vaccines against flu, BCG, HPV, pneumococcal disease, polio, and COVID-19. The time frame includes the last five-year period starting from 17 April 2016. Multiple training of time series models with back testing, including Holt–Winters forecasting, Exponential Smoothing State Space, Linear model with trend and seasonal components (tlsm), and ARIMA was conducted. Forecasting according to the best fitting model was performed. Results: Correlation analysis did not reveal a decrease in interest in vaccines during the analyzed period. The prediction models provided a short-term forecast of the dynamics of interest for flu, HPV, pneumococcal and polio vaccines with 5–10% growth in interest for the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the same quarter of 2021. Conclusions: Despite the huge interest in the COVID-19 vaccine, there has not been a detectable decline in the overall interest in the five analyzed vaccines. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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