| Popis: |
The model of dependence between the volume of capital investments and gross domestic product (GDP) by type of activity "Transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities" is determined. The following macroeconomic indicators were used as experimental data to calculate the dependence of Ukraine's GDP growth on the volume of investment in the transport sector: statistical data on capital investment and gross domestic product by type of activity "Transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities"; the amount of investment in land and pipeline transport at actual prices; volume of investments in water transport; volume of investments in air transport; volume of investments in warehousing and ancillary activities in the field of transport; volume of investments in postal and courier activities. Comparative study of quality of iterative linear and combinatorial algorithms applying a group method of data handling (GMDH) is carried out and efficiency of use of group method of data handling at forecasting of GDP is shown. It is proved that the indicators used in GDP forecasting have a joint (synergistic) multiplier effect on GDP, which indicates a nonlinear relationship between the investment indicators used and GDP. Using a combined iterative-combinatorial (sqcombi c) model, the forecast value of GDP for the next year is determined. The forecast quarterly values of variables for the next year are determined by calculating the values of the linear trend in Excel. To forecast capital investments, the equation of linear trends of capital investments for each type of economic activity of future periods is obtained and the forecast of the total volume of capital investments is obtained. The forecast value of GDP was calculated using a combined iterative-combinatorial model (sqcombi c), and the results of the calculation allowed to predict the following dependence.An increase in capital investment provides accelerated economic development; new technologies and processes are introduced leading to an increase in the level of competitiveness of both business entities and goods and services; staff qualification increases; the process of forming a favourable investment climate in the country, for both domestic and foreign investors, accelerates; the development of effective integration processes is taking place; the processes of integration of the domestic economy into the world economy accelerate, and the advantages of international division and cooperation are employed. |
