Short-term mortality risk score for de novo acute heart failure (ESSIC-FEHF)

Autor: Iratxe Lafuente, Irene Rilo, Maria Soledad Gallardo, Urko Aguirre, José M. Quintana, Nekane Murga, Susana Garcia-Gutierrez, R. Quirós, Ane Anton-Ladislao, Miren Morillas, Antonio J. Lara
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: European Journal of Internal Medicine. 77:52-58
ISSN: 0953-6205
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2020.02.012
Popis: Background Different variables are playing a role in prognosis of acute heart failure. Objectives Our purpose was to create and validate a risk score to predict mortality in patients with a first episode of acute heart failure during the first 2 months after the first hospitalization. Design This was a prospective cohort study. Participants We recruited patients diagnosed with a first episode of acute heart failure. Main measures We collected data on sociodemographic characteristics; medical history; symptoms; precipitating factors; signs and symptoms of congestion; echocardiographic parameters; aetiology; vital signs and laboratory findings; and response to initial treatment (yes/no). A Cox proportional hazard regression model was built with mortality during the first 2 months after the index episode as the dependent variable. A risk score is presented. Key Results The mortality rate during the first 2 months after a first episode of heart failure was 5%. Age, systolic blood pressure, serum sodium, ejection fraction and blood urea nitrogen were selected in the internal validation, as was right ventricular failure. A risk score was developed. Both the model and the score showed good discrimination and calibration properties when applied to an independent cohort. Conclusions Our ESSIC-FEHF risk score showed excellent properties in the derivation cohort and also in a cohort from a different time period. This score is expected to help decision making in patients diagnosed with heart failure for the first time.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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