A statistical model predicting high hepatocyte proliferation index and the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis
| Autor: | F, Azzaroli, A, Colecchia, A, Colecchi, F, Lodato, D, Trerè, M L, Bacchi Reggiani, D, Festi, G M, Prati, E, Accogli, S, Casanova, M, Derenzini, E, Roda, G, Mazzella |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Azzaroli F, Colecchia A, Lodato F, Trere D, Bacchi Reggiani ML, Festi D, Prati GM, Accogli E, Casanova S, Derenzini M, Roda E, Mazzella G |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2006 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Liver Cirrhosis Male medicine.medical_specialty Pathology Carcinoma Hepatocellular Cirrhosis Proliferation index Hepatitis C virus Chronic liver disease medicine.disease_cause Gastroenterology Liver disease Risk Factors Internal medicine medicine Humans Pharmacology (medical) Aged Cell Proliferation LIVER TUMOR CHRONIC LIVER DISEASE ANTIVIRAL THERAPHY Models Statistical Hepatology business.industry Liver Neoplasms Hepatitis C Hepatitis C Chronic Middle Aged medicine.disease Survival Analysis Hepatocellular carcinoma Hepatocytes Regression Analysis Female Nucleolus organizer region business |
| Popis: | Summary Background Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis is 4% per year. Although cost-effective, current screening could be improved. Aim To develop a statistical model including non-invasive parameters able to identify patients at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods One hundred and fifty-eight patients (73F:85M) with compensated chronic hepatitis C virus liver disease underwent evaluation, including argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index, and were followed up for 56.18 ± 1.44 months. Results Fifty-six patients had chronic hepatitis without cirrhosis and low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index (≤25%), 65 had hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis and low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index and 37 had hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis and high argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index (>25%). Groups were similar for gender and viral genotype distribution. None of the patients with chronic hepatitis without cirrhosis developed hepatocellular carcinoma, compared with 6.1% of low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index and 30.6% of high argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index (P = 0.002). By multivariable logistic regression analysis, the following parameters were independently associated with hepatocellular carcinoma development and used for the development of the statistical model: platelets (OR 0.98), γ-globulins (OR 0.111), alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio (OR 0.07), serum ferritin (OR 1.0) and ultrasonographyc pattern (coarse OR 2.9, coarse nodular OR 10.12). The statistical model properly allocated 95.9% of patients with low argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index and 72.2% of patients with high argyrophilic nucleolar organizer regions proliferation index. Conclusions The model, to be validated in large prospective studies, may help tailoring screening according to the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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