The Evolution of Communicating the Uncertainty of Climate Change to Policymakers: A Study of IPCC Synthesis Reports
| Autor: | Ernest Abadal, Tomàs Molina |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
media_common.quotation_subject Geography Planning and Development lcsh:TJ807-830 lcsh:Renewable energy sources Climate change Obligacions internacionals Management Monitoring Policy and Law 01 natural sciences decision making content study Order (exchange) Political science 050602 political science & public administration Canvi climàtic Degree of certainty uncertainty lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences media_common lcsh:GE1-350 Public economics Scope (project management) Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment IPCC lcsh:Environmental effects of industries and plants 05 social sciences Certainty 0506 political science Call to action Climatic change International obligations climate change lcsh:TD194-195 Content analysis |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability, Vol 13, Iss 2466, p 2466 (2021) Dipòsit Digital de la UB Universidad de Barcelona |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| Popis: | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on climate change have served to alert both the public and policymakers about the scope of the predicted changes and the effects they would have on natural and economic systems. The first IPCC report was published in 1990, since which time a further four have been produced. The aim of this study was to conduct a content analysis of the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers in order to determine the degree of certainty associated with the statements they contain. For each of the reports we analyzed all statements containing expressions indicating the corresponding level of confidence. The aggregated results show a shift over time towards higher certainty levels, implying a “Call to action” (from 32.8% of statements in IPCC2 to 70.2% in IPCC5). With regard to the international agreements drawn up to tackle climate change, the growing level of confidence expressed in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers reports might have been a relevant factor in the history of decision making. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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