Do Researchers Anchor Their Beliefs on the Outcome of an Initial Study?
| Autor: | Anja F. Ernst, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Don van Ravenzwaaij, Andrew Gelman, Rink Hoekstra |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Psychologische Methodenleer (Psychologie, FMG), Psychometrics and Statistics, Research and Evaluation of Educational Effectiveness |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
050103 clinical psychology
CONFIDENCE Anchoring Experimental and Cognitive Psychology ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING Outcome (game theory) 050105 experimental psychology bepress|Life Sciences Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) Order (exchange) 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences General Psychology NULL HYPOTHESIS bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology Heuristic PsyArXiv|Life Sciences 05 social sciences General Medicine PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Cultural Psychology humanities ComputingMilieux_GENERAL PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences BIAS PsyArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology other bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences Null hypothesis Heuristics Psychology Cognitive psychology |
| Zdroj: | Experimental Psychology, 65(3), 158-169. Hogrefe Publishing Experimental psychology, 65(3), 158-169. Hogrefe Publishing |
| ISSN: | 1618-3169 |
| Popis: | Abstract. As a research field expands, scientists have to update their knowledge and integrate the outcomes of a sequence of studies. However, such integrative judgments are generally known to fall victim to a primacy bias where people anchor their judgments on the initial information. In this preregistered study we tested the hypothesis that people anchor on the outcome of a small initial study, reducing the impact of a larger subsequent study that contradicts the initial result. Contrary to our expectation, undergraduates and academics displayed a recency bias, anchoring their judgment on the research outcome presented last. This recency bias is due to the fact that unsuccessful replications decreased trust in an effect more than did unsuccessful initial experiments. We recommend the time-reversal heuristic to account for temporal order effects during integration of research results. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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