Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways

Autor: Saritha Vishwanathan, Shinichiro Fujimori, Roberto Schaeffer, Andries F. Hof, Swapnil Shekhar, Heleen van Soest, Laurent Drouet, Wenying Chen, Zoi Vrontisi, David L. McCollum, Alexandre C. Köberle, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Nicole J. van den Berg, Kornelis Blok, Niklas Höhne, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Johannes Emmerling
Přispěvatelé: Environmental Sciences
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Process (engineering)
020209 energy
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
02 engineering and technology
PARIS AGREEMENT
MITIGATION
NEEDS
7. Clean energy
01 natural sciences
Contraction and Convergence
12. Responsible consumption
Greenhouse Development Rights
11. Sustainability
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Per capita
Range (statistics)
Life Science
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Baseline (configuration management)
FAIR
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Global and Planetary Change
WIMEK
Science & Technology
CLIMATE-CHANGE
Equity (economics)
1. No poverty
Environmental economics
Environmental Systems Analysis
13. Climate action
Milieusysteemanalyse
Greenhouse gas
Physical Sciences
Environmental science
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Zdroj: Climatic Change 162 (2020)
Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, 162(4)
Climatic Change, 162, 1805-1822
Climatic Change
Climatic Change, 162, 1805. Springer Netherlands
ISSN: 0165-0009
Popis: The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz: