Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals
| Autor: | Cain, Michelle, Jenkins, Stuart, Allen, Myles R., Lynch, John, Frame, David J., Macey, Adrian H., Peters, Glen P. |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
| ISSN: | 1471-2962 1364-503X |
| Popis: | Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH 4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH 4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO 2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO 2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH 4 emissions starts to reverse CH 4 -induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO 2 -equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO 2 and CH 4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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