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PERFORMANCE of the livestock-feed-grain sector for more than 30 years has been influenced by government programs. Except for dairy products and wool, the programs have been applied directly to feed grains but have been designed and operated to influence livestock as well. Harold Breimyer, of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, writing in the Journal of Farm Economics in November 1954, stated: "When consumer demand for livestock products is stable .. . a program of price supports and storage (for feed grains) is unquestionably a stabilizing factor to the livestock industry." Specifically, feed price programs very materially smooth out feed-livestock variations caused by annual fluctuations in production of feed. However, he went on to say, '"They leave untouched those caused by built-in cyclicality of the livestock industry; and they intensify but shorten those caused by changes in demand" [1]. Five years later, in 1959, Mr. Breimyer wrote, "Programs to date have had some effect ... but have not achieved as much stability in hogs and other livestock as has been envisioned" [2]. In view of the price fluctuations that have occurred in both beef cattle and hogs in the past 3 years, there are some who would question whether any significant progress has been made in stabilizing livestock supplies and prices. Earlier writers have noted that the storage programs prevent the large year-to-year change in pork production that used to occur because of large, erratic fluctuations in corn production, utilization, and prices [2, 10, 11]. For example, Shepherd in the 1942 bulletin wrote: "The fluctuations in production and prices of corn ... give rise to severe fluctuations in supplies and prices of hogs. Hog production fluctuates markedly from year to year, over a range equal to about 50 percent of the average production." Further, "Changes in hog production closely follow the changes in corn production, whereas changes in beef-cattle production follow a somewhat cyclical course of their own, largely independent of corn production." These writers also noted some increase in stability of corn prices and utilization and of hog production in the postwar period into the late 1950's. The program in effect from 1933 through 1960 included acreage allotments and price supports for corn but indirectly affected other feed grains through the soil conservation and soil bank programs. Droughts in the mid-1930's and unusually large demands resulting from World War II and the Korean conflict caused periodic lifting of allotments and prevented any sustained buildup in government stocks. |
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