A new tool for predicting the solar cycle: Correlation between flux transport at the equator and the poles
| Autor: | P. Janardhan, Susanta Kumar Bisoi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Physics
Solar observatory 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Equator Flux FOS: Physical sciences Astronomy and Astrophysics Field strength Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences Magnetic flux Space Physics (physics.space-ph) Latitude Solar cycle Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Physics - Space Physics Space and Planetary Science 0103 physical sciences Physics::Space Physics Polar Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 010303 astronomy & astrophysics Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Popis: | The magnetic flux cancellation on the Sun plays a crucial role in determining the manner in which the net magnetic flux changes in every solar cycle, affecting the large scale evolution of the coronal magnetic fields and heliospheric environment. We investigate, in this paper, the correlation between the solar magnetic flux cancelled at the equator and the solar magnetic flux transported to the poles by comparing the net amount of magnetic flux in the latitude belt 0${^{\circ}}$-5${^{\circ}}$ and 45${^{\circ}}$-60${^{\circ}}$, estimated using synoptic magnetograms from National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, during Solar Cycles 21-24. We find a good correlation between the net flux in the latitude band 0${^{\circ}}$-5${^{\circ}}$ and 55${^{\circ}}$-60${^{\circ}}$ for the Northern as well as for the Southern hemispheres. However, we find a poor correlation if the net flux for the Northern and Southern hemispheres are considered together. In addition, we investigate the correlation between the net flux cancelled at the equator and the strength of solar polar field at cycle minimum, and find a good correlation between the two. We discuss the implication of the correlation of flux transported across the equator and to the poles that has an important bearing in the estimation of the residual polar cap field strength at the cycle minimum. This can be used a predictive tool for estimating the amplitude of subsequent cycles and we use this to estimate maximum smoothed sunspot numbers of 77$\pm$5 and 85$\pm$5 for the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively, for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. Submitted to Solar Physics Journal (19 Pages, 7 Figures) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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