Downscaling global ocean climate models improves estimates of exposure regimes in coastal environments
| Autor: | G. De Leo, James P. Barry, Matheus Fagundes, Sorush Omidvar, Fiorenza Micheli, C. B. Woodson, Steven Y. Litvin, C. A. Boch |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Multidisciplinary lcsh:R Climate-change ecology Oceanic climate Climate change lcsh:Medicine Regional Ocean Modeling System Atmospheric sciences Article Atmosphere 03 medical and health sciences 030104 developmental biology 0302 clinical medicine Benthic zone Temperate climate Environmental science Ecosystem lcsh:Q lcsh:Science Climate-change impacts 030217 neurology & neurosurgery Downscaling |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| Popis: | Climate change is expected to warm, deoxygenate, and acidify ocean waters. Global climate models (GCMs) predict future conditions at large spatial scales, and these predictions are then often used to parameterize laboratory experiments designed to assess biological and ecological responses to future change. However, nearshore ecosystems are affected by a range of physical processes such as tides, local winds, and surface and internal waves, causing local variability in conditions that often exceeds global climate models. Predictions of future climatic conditions at local scales, the most relevant to ecological responses, are largely lacking. To fill this critical gap, we developed a 2D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to downscale global climate predictions across all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to smaller spatial scales, in this case the scale of a temperate reef in the northeastern Pacific. To assess the potential biological impacts of local climate variability, we then used the results from different climate scenarios to estimate how climate change may affect the survival, growth, and fertilization of a representative marine benthic invertebrate, the red abalone Haliotis rufescens, to a highly varying multi-stressor environment. We found that high frequency variability in temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH increases as pCO2 increases in the atmosphere. Extreme temperature and pH conditions are generally not expected until RCP 4.5 or greater, while frequent exposure to low DO is already occurring. In the nearshore environment simulation, strong RCP scenarios can affect red abalone growth as well as reduce fertilization during extreme conditions when compared to global scale simulations. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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