The Model of Severity Prediction of Traffic Crash on the Curve
| Autor: | Hai-zhu Liu, Zhong-hao Zhao, Tong-qiang Ding, Jian-feng Xi, Wei Cheng |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
Engineering
Article Subject business.industry General Mathematics Maximum likelihood lcsh:Mathematics General Engineering Crash Sample (statistics) Logistic regression lcsh:QA1-939 Road crash lcsh:TA1-2040 Statistics Traffic crash business lcsh:Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Simulation Reliability (statistics) |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Vol 2014 (2014) |
| ISSN: | 1563-5147 |
| Popis: | With the study of traffic crashes on curved road segments as the focus of research, a logistic regression based curve road crash severity prediction model was established based on a sample crash database of 20000 entries collected from 4 regions of China and 15 evaluation indicators involving driver, driving environment, and traffic environment factors. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and step-back technique were deployed for data analysis, the conclusion of which is that the three main contributory factors on curve road crash severity are weather, roadside protection facility, and pavement structure. Hosmer and Lemeshow tests were used to verify the reliability of the model, and the model variables were discussed to a certain degree as well. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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