Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation
| Autor: | Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, Xinhu Cao |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Estimation
Net profit 050210 logistics & transportation 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences business.industry 05 social sciences Environmental resource management Vulnerability Worst-case scenario Engineering::Civil engineering [DRNTU] 01 natural sciences Port (computer networking) Hazard Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Critical infrastructure Port Typhoon 0502 economics and business Business Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Catastrophe Risk 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 175:1-12 |
| ISSN: | 0951-8320 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.008 |
| Popis: | Seaports are critical infrastructure systems in the international economy. They are at the same time vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made catastrophes due to their special coastal and low-lying locations. Traditional catastrophe risk analyses focused more on regions, port cities, and port communities. Limited studies assessed catastrophe risks on ports as a specific system. This paper aims to develop a catastrophe-induced port loss estimation framework, based on a port operation simulation model, actual terminal records and historical hazard records. By using the typhoon hazard and the Port of Shenzhen as a case study, we find that (1) the worst-case scenario of a typhoon impact could cause a total loss of US$0.91 billion for a terminal with 16 berths; and (2) the annual predicted typhoon-induced loss for the same terminal for the next 5 years will reach approximately US$64 million, accounting for 19.7% of the terminal net profit in 2015. The results provide useful references for various port stakeholders in catastrophe risk assessment and mitigation. Accepted version |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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