Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century
| Autor: | Arno Behrens, Andreas Sterl, Ralf Weisse, Lennart Bengtsson, Alvaro Semedo, Heinz Günther |
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| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Climate Semedo, A.; Weisse, R.; Behrens, A.; Sterl, A.; Bengtsson, L.; Guenther, H.: Projection of Global Wave Climate Change toward the End of the Twenty-First Century. In: Journal of Climate. Vol. 26 (2013) 21, 8269-8288. (DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00658.1) |
| ISSN: | 1520-0442 0894-8755 |
| Popis: | Wind-generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importancefor both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastalerosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientificrelevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far,long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from aregional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging onlyrecently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which aglobal wave model [Wave Ocean Model (WAM)] is driven by atmosphericforcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present-day andpotential future climate conditions represented by the IntergovernmentalPanel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. It is found thatchanges in mean and extreme wave climate toward the end of thetwenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signalsbeing a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant waveheights in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in theSouthern Hemisphere and most likely associated with a correspondingshift in midlatitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistentwith results from the few studies available so far. The projectedchanges in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in thewave climate in the middle to high latitudes, are also shown, revealinga moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins.This study presents a step forward toward a larger ensemble of globalwave climate projections required to better assess robustness anduncertainty of potential future wave climate change. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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