Assessment of the Fragility of the Municipal Waste Sector in Serbia Using System Dynamics Modelling
| Autor: | Miloš Jovičić, Goran B. Bošković, Nebojša Jovičić, Marija Savković, Ivan Mačužić, Miladin Stefanović, Yury Klochkov |
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| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
Environmental effects of industries and plants
Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Geography Planning and Development solid waste management recycling targets fragility system dynamics TJ807-830 Management Monitoring Policy and Law TD194-195 Renewable energy sources Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability, Vol 14, Iss 862, p 862 (2022) Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 2; Pages: 862 |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su14020862 |
| Popis: | This research develops a novel methodology for municipal waste management in Serbia, based on system dynamics modelling. The methodology shows how a country and relevant institutions should address complexities in the waste management sector. Waste management is a critical issue globally, which heavily impacts the economic development of a country, including the general quality of life within a society. The designed simulation generates different scenarios of the Serbian municipal waste system for reaching the 2035 recycling rate targets. Methodologies such as the theory of constraints, fragility analysis, and systems dynamics were implemented in the model. The scenarios and fragility modelling were conducted with the system dynamics modelling methodology in the Ventity simulation environment. The designed model has elements of discrete event simulations, system dynamics, and agent-based modelling. Importantly, real-world data for the period of five years (from the year 2016 to 2020) was used in the case study. This research undoubtedly reveals that the informal sector is the key source of fragility to the dynamic system considered. During the considered period, the informal sector contributed 62.3% of all separated waste to the system. Consequently, this research concludes that for the waste sector in Serbia to reach the 2035 EU goals, the existing practice in waste management has to be changed significantly and will benefit from the modelling approach used here. The whole system is highly dependent on the informal sector, which, in its current form, is volatile, unregulated, and fragile to aggressive regulative policies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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