Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison
| Autor: | M. Tasambay-Salazar, M. J. OrtizBeviá, A. RuizdeElvira, F. J. Alvarez-García |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology lcsh:QE1-996.5 Linear model General Medicine 010502 geochemistry & geophysics Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences lcsh:Geology El Niño Southern Oscillation lcsh:QE500-639.5 Climatology Extratropical cyclone Environmental science lcsh:Q Predictability lcsh:Science 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Advances in Geosciences, Vol 42, Pp 73-81 (2016) |
| ISSN: | 1680-7359 |
| Popis: | The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world for seasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experiments of Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown an important skill loss at longer lead times when the targeted season is summer or autumn. We develop different versions of the model substituting some its variables with others that contain tropical or extratropical information, produce a number of hindcasts with these models using two different predictions schemes and cross validate them. We have identified different sets of tropical or extratropical predictors, which can provide useful values of potential skill. We try to find out the sources of the predictability by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST) and heat content (HC) anomalous fields produced by the successful predictors for the 1980–2012 period. We observe that where tropical predictors are used the prediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming (cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, the predictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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