Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Autor: Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard
Přispěvatelé: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), University of Eastern Finland, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Universidad de Granada = University of Granada (UGR), European Environmental Agency (EEA), Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Andalusian Institute of Earth Sciences (IACT), Spanish National Research Council [Madrid] (CSIC), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] (DICCA), Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa (UniGe), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages (UMR G-EAU), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 26 (21), pp.5605-5625. ⟨10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022⟩
Sebok, E, Henriksen, H J, Pasten-Zapata, E, Berg, P, Thirel, G, Lemoine, A, Lira-Loarca, A, Photiadou, C, Pimentel, R, Royer-Gaspard, P, Kjellstrom, E, Christensen, J H, Vidal, J P, Lucas-Picher, P, Donat, M G, Besio, G, Jose Polo, M, Stisen, S, Caballero, Y, Pechlivanidis, I G, Troldborg, L & Refsgaard, J C 2022, ' Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies ', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 26, no. 21, pp. 5605-5625 . https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022
ISSN: 1607-7938
1027-5606
DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022⟩
Popis: Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decisionmaking process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models.
European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre 690462
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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