Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)

Autor: Yannick Fanchette, François Bonnardot, Miloud Bessafi, Anja Mihailović, Dragutin T. Mihailović, Jean-Pierre Chabriat, Slavica Malinović-Milićević, Guillaume Jumaux
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Meteorology
chaos
General Physics and Astronomy
lcsh:Astrophysics
02 engineering and technology
cumulative daily solar irradiation
Solar irradiance
01 natural sciences
Article
law.invention
La Réunion
Hamming distance
law
Intermittency
lcsh:QB460-466
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Atmospheric instability
Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity
Predictability
lcsh:Science
ropical island
Kolmogorov time predictability mapping
Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Randomness
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
complexity measures
Kolmogorov complexity
Turbulence
business.industry
020206 networking & telecommunications
Solar energy
tropical island
lcsh:QC1-999
Physics::Space Physics
Environmental science
lcsh:Q
Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
business
entropy
lcsh:Physics
Zdroj: Entropy
Entropy, Vol 20, Iss 12, p 946 (2018)
Volume 20
Issue 12
ISSN: 1099-4300
Popis: Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties of cloud and aerosol, moisture and atmospheric stability, orographic and thermal forcing, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the period 2011&ndash
2015, at 32 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use the tools of non-linear dynamics: the intermittency and chaos analysis, the largest Lyapunov exponent, Sample entropy, the Kolmogorov complexity and its derivatives (Kolmogorov complexity spectrum and its highest value), and spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity combined with Hamming distance to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. Finally, we have clustered the Kolmogorov time (that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability) for daily cumulative solar irradiation for all stations. We show that under the record-breaking 2011&ndash
2012 La Nina event and preceding a very strong El-Nino 2015&ndash
2016 event, the predictability of daily incident solar energy over La Ré
union is affected.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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