Validation of two prognostic models predicting outcome at two years after diagnosis in a new cohort of children with epilepsy
| Autor: | Oebele F. Brouwer, Cees A. van Donselaar, Willem F. M. Arts, A. T. Geerts, A.C. Boudewijn Peters, Hans Stroink, Els A. J. Peeters |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Neurology |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2006 |
| Předmět: |
Male
Pediatrics medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent SCORING SYSTEM ABSENCE EPILEPSY Cohort Studies Epilepsy Predictive Value of Tests Outcome Assessment Health Care Humans Medicine prognostic model SEIZURE Child RECURRENCE Referral and Consultation Prognostic models METAANALYSIS Netherlands childhood validation Models Statistical business.industry Infant Reproducibility of Results Electroencephalography medicine.disease Confidence interval ROC curve Hospitalization Treatment Outcome Neurology El Niño Child Preschool Predictive value of tests Cohort epilepsy Female Neurology (clinical) prognosis business Validation cohort Follow-Up Studies Cohort study |
| Zdroj: | Epilepsia, 47(6), 960-965. Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd Epilepsia, 47(6), 960-965. Wiley |
| ISSN: | 0013-9580 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/j.1528-1167.2006.00570.x |
| Popis: | Purpose: To validate two prognostic models for childhood-onset epilepsy designed to predict a terminal remission of Methods: A hospital-based cohort of children with newly diagnosed epilepsy was recruited and followed up for 2 years to validate previously developed models. One model was based on variables collected at intake, and the other was based on intake variables plus variables collected during the first 6 months of follow-up. The accuracy of both models was estimated by measuring the area under the receiver-operant-characteristic curves (ROC area).Results: The ROC area of the model developed with intake variables was 0.69 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.74] for the original cohort and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.55-0.69) for the validation cohort. The best combination of sensitivity and specificity for the original cohort was 61.6% and 69.1%, whereas it was 60.0% and 61.4% for the validation cohort. For the model with intake and 6-month variables combined, the ROC area was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82) for the original cohort and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.64-0.78) for the validation cohort. The sensitivity and specificity were 72.6% and 73.1%, respectively, for the original cohort and 67.4% and 60.2%, respectively, for the validation cohort.Conclusions: Although both models predict outcome better than chance, they are insufficiently accurate to be of practical value. Both models performed marginally less well with the validation cohort than with the original cohort, but in both instances, the model based on intake and 6-month variables was more accurate. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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