How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
| Autor: | Rafael M. da Silva, Marcus W. Beims, Cesar Manchein, Eduardo L. Brugnago |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Physics - Physics and Society Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) General Mathematics Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) FOS: Physical sciences General Physics and Astronomy Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) 01 natural sciences Article 010305 fluids & plasmas SEIR Model 0103 physical sciences Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution 010301 acoustics Applied Mathematics Social distance Incidence (epidemiology) Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) Outbreak COVID-19 Statistical and Nonlinear Physics Coronavirus Geography Infectious disease (medical specialty) Power-law growth FOS: Biological sciences Containment measures Demography |
| Zdroj: | Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals |
| Popis: | Highlights • Modeling the epidemic trends for COVID-19 is essential to take effective containment measures. • We show that time is one of the most important weapons we have in the battle against the COVID-19. • To keep the social distance and to isolate asymptomatic individuals are efficient measures to flatten the epidemic curve. • Our results show that nonpharmacological strategies must be applied as soon as possible. The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). After an initial period with a low incidence of newly infected people, a power-law growth of the number of confirmed cases is observed. For each country, a distinct growth exponent is obtained. For Belgium, UK, and USA, countries with a large number of infected people, after the power-law growth, a distinct behavior is obtained when approaching saturation. Brazil is still in the power-law regime. Such updates of the data and projections corroborate recent results regarding the power-law growth of the virus and their strong Distance Correlation between some countries around the world. Furthermore, we show that act in time is one of the most relevant non-pharmacological weapons that the health organizations have in the battle against the COVID-19, infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. We study how changing the social distance and the number of daily tests to identify infected asymptomatic individuals can interfere in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 when applied in three distinct days, namely April 16th (early), April 30th (current), and May 14th (late). Results show that containment actions are necessary to flatten the curves and should be applied as soon as possible. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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