Differences in how interventions coupled with effective reproduction numbers account for marked variations in COVID-19 epidemic outcomes

Autor: Pei Yu Liu, Fan Xia, Robert Cheke, Xuan Ya Li, Yanni Xiao
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Psychological intervention
Basic Reproduction Number
0904 Chemical Engineering
02 engineering and technology
effective reproduction number
Japan
0903 Biomedical Engineering
0102 Applied Mathematics
Pandemic
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Poisson Distribution
prevention and control strategy
Social isolation
Socioeconomics
Applied Mathematics
Social distance
05 social sciences
General Medicine
Computational Mathematics
Geography
Social Isolation
Modeling and Simulation
Quarantine
020201 artificial intelligence & image processing
medicine.symptom
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Coronavirus Infections
Biotechnology
Mainland China
China
S1
Bioinformatics
Pneumonia
Viral
Betacoronavirus
0502 economics and business
Republic of Korea
medicine
QA1-939
Humans
Pandemics
covid-19 outbreak
SARS-CoV-2
Outbreak
COVID-19
Bayes Theorem
Models
Theoretical
Spain
Communicable Disease Control
Basic reproduction number
050203 business & management
TP248.13-248.65
Mathematics
Zdroj: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 17, Iss 5, Pp 5085-5098 (2020)
ISSN: 1547-1063
Popis: The COVID-19 outbreak, designated a "pandemic" by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020, has spread worldwide rapidly. Each country implemented prevention and control strategies, mainly classified as SARS LCS (SARS-like containment strategy) or PAIN LMS (pandemic influenza-like mitigation strategy). The reasons for variation in each strategy's efficacy in controlling COVID-19 epidemics were unclear and are investigated in this paper. On the basis of the daily number of confirmed local (imported) cases and onset-to-confirmation distributions for local cases, we initially estimated the daily number of local (imported) illness onsets by a deconvolution method for mainland China, South Korea, Japan and Spain, and then estimated the effective reproduction numbers Rt by using a Bayesian method for each of the four countries. China and South Korea adopted a strict SARS LCS, to completely block the spread via lockdown, strict travel restrictions and by detection and isolation of patients, which led to persistent declines in effective reproduction numbers. In contrast, Japan and Spain adopted a typical PAIN LMS to mitigate the spread via maintaining social distance, self-quarantine and isolation etc., which reduced the Rt values but with oscillations around 1. The finding suggests that governments may need to consider multiple factors such as quantities of medical resources, the likely extent of the public's compliance to different intensities of intervention measures, and the economic situation to design the most appropriate policies to fight COVID-19 epidemics.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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