SODA – a forecast service to predict storm induced satellite orbit decays
| Autor: | Krauss, Sandro, Temmer, Manuela, Drescher, Lukas, Süsser-Rechberger, Barbara, Kroisz, Sofia, Strasser, Andreas, Mayer-Guerr, Torsten |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| Popis: | With the strong rise of the current solar cycle 25 also the number of solar eruptions, like solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), increases. These solar events have the capability to trigger geomagnetic storms, which may disrupt and damage satellites in space as well as technical infrastructure on Earth. The forecasting tool SODA (Satellite Orbit DecAy) is based on an interdisciplinary analysis of geodetic observations and solar wind in-situ measurements, and was developed in cooperation between the University of Graz and the Graz University of Technology. It allows the prediction of the impact of CME events on the altitude of low Earth orbiting satellites with a lead time of 15 hours. To calculate the storm induced orbit decay we analyzed 299 CME events over a period of 15 years. Appropriated variations in the thermospheric neutral mass density, were derived from measurements of the CHAMP, GRACE and SWARM satellite missions. In addition we investigated deviations in the magnetic field component Bz measured by the ACE and the DSCOVR spacecraft at the L1 point. The analysis of the CME induced orbit decays and the interplanetary magnetic field showed a strong correlation as well as a time delay between the CME and the associated thermospheric response. This correlation is implemented in the real time forecasting tool SODA, which is implemented in the ESA Space Safety Program (Ionospheric Weather Expert Service Center). The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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