Lagrangian modelling of a person lost at sea during the Adriatic scirocco storm of 29 October 2018
| Autor: | Matjaž Ličer, Davide Deponte, Anja Fettich, Catalina Reyes-Suarez, Solène Estival |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Meteorology Atmospheric model 01 natural sciences lcsh:TD1-1066 law.invention symbols.namesake law lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering Radar lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 010505 oceanography lcsh:QE1-996.5 Model representation Ocean current lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation Storm lcsh:Geology lcsh:G symbols General Earth and Planetary Sciences Submarine pipeline Lagrangian Geology Wind forcing |
| Zdroj: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 20, Pp 2335-2349 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 1684-9981 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-20-2335-2020 |
| Popis: | On 29 October 2018 a windsurfer's mast broke about 1 km offshore from Istria during a severe scirocco storm in the northern Adriatic Sea. He drifted in severe marine conditions until he eventually beached alive and well in Sistiana (Italy) 24 h later. We conducted an interview with the survivor to reconstruct his trajectory and to gain insight into his swimming and paddling strategy. Part of survivor's trajectory was verified using high-frequency radar surface current observations as inputs for Lagrangian temporal back-propagation from the beaching site. Back-propagation simulations were found to be largely consistent with the survivor's reconstruction. We then attempted a Lagrangian forward-propagation simulation of his trajectory by performing a leeway simulation using the OpenDrift tracking code using two object types: (i) person in water in unknown state and (ii) person with a surfboard. In both cases a high-resolution (1 km) setup of the NEMO v3.6 circulation model was employed for the surface current component, and a 4.4 km operational setup of the ALADIN atmospheric model was used for wind forcing. The best performance is obtained using the person-with-a-surfboard object type, giving the highest percentage of particles stranded within 5 km of the beaching site. Accumulation of particles stranded within 5 km of the beaching site saturates 6 h after the actual beaching time for all drifting-particle types. This time lag most likely occurs due to poor NEMO model representation of surface currents, especially in the final hours of the drift. A control run of wind-only forcing shows the poorest performance of all simulations. This indicates the importance of topographically constrained ocean currents in semi-enclosed basins even in seemingly wind-dominated situations for determining the trajectory of a person lost at sea. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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