The ILD-GAP risk prediction model performs poorly in myositis-associated interstitial lung disease

Autor: Eleni Tiniakou, Lisa Christopher-Stine, Sonye K. Danoff, Cheilonda Johnson, Rebeccah M. Brusca, Andrew L. Mammen, Christopher A. Mecoli, Iago Pinal-Fernandez, Julie J. Paik, Kevin J. Psoter, Jemima Albayda
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Male
Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
medicine.medical_specialty
Cross-sectional study
Vital Capacity
Population
Risk Assessment
behavioral disciplines and activities
Article
Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Clinical Decision Rules
Forced Expiratory Volume
Internal medicine
Prevalence
medicine
Humans
030212 general & internal medicine
education
Myositis
Aged
Retrospective Studies
education.field_of_study
business.industry
Interstitial lung disease
Percent Predicted Forced Vital Capacity
Middle Aged
respiratory system
Prognosis
medicine.disease
Respiratory Function Tests
respiratory tract diseases
body regions
Patient population
Cross-Sectional Studies
030228 respiratory system
Calibration
Prognostic model
Female
Lung Diseases
Interstitial
business
Zdroj: Respiratory Medicine. 150:63-65
ISSN: 0954-6111
DOI: 10.1016/j.rmed.2019.02.015
Popis: Purpose Myositis-associated interstitial lung disease (MA-ILD) is associated with increased mortality, but no prognostic model exists in this population. The ILD-GAP index was developed to predict mortality risk across all subtypes of chronic ILD. The purpose of this study was to validate the ILD-GAP risk prediction model in patients with MA-ILD. Procedures We completed a retrospective cross-sectional study of patients enrolled in the Johns Hopkins Myositis Center database between 2006 and 2017. Cumulative mortality rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier test. Model calibration was determined by using standardized mortality ratios of observed versus expected deaths. Main findings 179 participants with MA-ILD were included. The mean baseline percent predicted forced vital capacity was 65.2 ± 20.6%, forced expiratory volume in the first second 65.4 ± 20.4%, and carbon monoxide diffusing capacity 61.6 ± 20.0%. Thirty-two participants died (17.9%). The ILD-GAP model had poor discriminative performance and calibration. Conclusions The ILD-GAP risk prediction model is a poor predictor of mortality among individuals with MA-ILD. The identification of a better predictive model for MA-ILD is needed to help guide care in this patient population.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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