Projected 21st Century Sea-Level Changes, Observed Sea Level Extremes, and Sea Level Allowances for Norway
| Autor: | Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal, Matthew J. R. Simpson, Holger Steffen, Olav Vestøl, Halfdan Pascal Kierulf, Hilde Sande, Jan Even Øie Nilsen |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
ACER extreme value prediction
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences regional sea-level projections sea level allowances Climate change Storm surge Ocean Engineering extreme sea levels 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences lcsh:Oceanography lcsh:VM1-989 Norway sea-level change IPCC AR5 glacial isostatic adjustment tide gauges lcsh:GC1-1581 Sea level 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering Lead (sea ice) Metres above sea level lcsh:Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering Geodetic datum Post-glacial rebound Climatology Environmental science Tide gauge |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 5; Issue 3; Pages: 36 Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 5, Iss 3, p 36 (2017) |
| ISSN: | 2077-1312 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/jmse5030036 |
| Popis: | Changes to mean sea level and/or sea level extremes (e.g., storm surges) will lead to changes in coastal impacts. These changes represent a changing exposure or risk to our society. Here, we present 21st century sea-level projections for Norway largely based on the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC AR5). An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. We therefore pay special attention to vertical land motion, which is constrained using new geodetic observations with improved spatial coverage and accuracies, and modelling work. Projected ensemble mean 21st century relative sea-level changes for Norway are, depending on location, from −0.10 to 0.30 m for emission scenario RCP2.6; 0.00 to 0.35 m for RCP 4.5; and 0.15 to 0.55 m for RCP8.5. For all RCPs, the projected ensemble mean indicates that the vast majority of the Norwegian coast will experience a rise in sea level. Norway’s official return heights for extreme sea levels are estimated using the average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method. We adapt an approach for calculating sea level allowances for use with the ACER method. All the allowances calculated give values above the projected ensemble mean Relative Sea Level (RSL) rise, i.e., to preserve the likelihood of flooding from extreme sea levels, a height increase above the most likely RSL rise should be used in planning. We also show that the likelihood of exceeding present-day return heights will dramatically increase with sea-level rise. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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