Abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical stages of crop production in Northern Germany
Autor: | Antje Herrmann, Nikolai Svoboda, Maximilian Strer |
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Rok vydání: | 2018 |
Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate change 01 natural sciences Anthesis Modelling shifts in phenological patterns Critical growth stages Risk of crop production for the North German Plain Water content lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 Phenology Research lcsh:Environmental law Sowing 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Pollution Maize lcsh:K3581-3598 Wheat Heat and frost stress Agronomy Soil water 040103 agronomy & agriculture 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Environmental science Risk assessment Cropping |
Zdroj: | Environmental Sciences Europe, Vol 30, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2018) Environmental sciences Europe, 30:10 Environmental Sciences Europe |
ISSN: | 2190-4715 2190-4707 |
Popis: | Background Understanding the abundance of adverse environmental conditions e.g. frost, drought, and heat during critical crop growth stages, which are assumed to be altered by climate change, is crucial for an accurate risk assessment for cropping systems. While a lengthening of the vegetation period may be beneficial, higher frequencies of heat or frost events and drought spells are generally regarded as harmful. The objective of the present study was to quantify shifts in maize and wheat phenology and the occurrence of adverse environmental conditions during critical growth stages for four regions located in the North German Plain. First, a statistical analysis of phenological development was conducted based on recent data (1981–2010). Next, these data were used to calibrate the DSSAT-CERES wheat and maize models, which were then used to run three climate projections representing the maximum, intermediate and minimum courses of climate development within the RCP 8.5 continuum during the years 2021–2050. By means of model simulation runs and statistical analysis, the climate data were evaluated for the abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical development stages, i.e. the stages of early crop development, anthesis, sowing and harvest. Results Proxies for adverse environmental conditions included thresholds of low and high temperatures as well as soil moisture. The comparison of the baseline climate and future climate projections showed a significant increase in the abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical growth stages in the future. The lengthening of the vegetation period in spring did not compensate for the increased abundance of high temperatures, e.g. during anthesis. Conclusions The results of this study indicate the need to develop adaptation strategies, such as implementing changes in cropping calendars. An increase in frost risk during early development, however, reveals the limited feasibility of early sowing as a mitigation strategy. In addition, the abundance of low soil water contents that hamper important production processes such as sowing and harvest were found to increase locally. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12302-018-0138-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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