The impact of bed-net use on malaria prevalence
| Autor: | Calistus N. Ngonghala, Kbenesh W. Blayneh, Maria Jacirema Ferreira Gonçalves, Sara Y. Del Valle, Hongfei Gong, Folashade B. Agusto, Ruijun Zhao, Nianpeng Li |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Population Biology Models Biological General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Mathematical modelling of infectious disease Article law.invention law Environmental health parasitic diseases medicine Prevalence Animals Humans education Bed nets education.field_of_study Mosquito Nets General Immunology and Microbiology Ecology Applied Mathematics General Medicine medicine.disease Malaria Transmission (mechanics) Culicidae Modeling and Simulation General Agricultural and Biological Sciences |
| Popis: | Malaria infection continues to be a major problem in many parts of the world including the Americas, Asia, and Africa. Insecticide-treated bed-nets have shown to reduce malaria cases by 50%; however, improper handling and human behavior can diminish their effectiveness. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model that considers the transmission dynamics of malaria infection in mosquito and human populations and investigate the impact of bed-nets on its control. The effective reproduction number is derived and existence of backward bifurcation is presented. The backward bifurcation implies that the reduction of R below unity alone is not enough to eradicate malaria, except when the initial cases of infection in both populations are small. Our analysis demonstrate that bed-net usage has a positive impact in reducing the reproduction number R. The results show that if 75% of the population were to use bed-nets, malaria could be eliminated. We conclude that more data on the impact of human and mosquito behavior on malaria spread is needed to develop more realistic models and better predictions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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