Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale
| Autor: | Tom Lindström, Katie Portacci, Stefan Sellman, Michael J. Tildesley, Ryan S. Miller, Colleen T. Webb, Clayton Hallman, Deedra J Murrieta, Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, Kimberly Tsao |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
040301 veterinary sciences
Biomedical Engineering Biophysics Bioengineering Culling Disease Biochemistry law.invention 0403 veterinary science Biomaterials 03 medical and health sciences law medicine 030304 developmental biology 0303 health sciences Foot-and-mouth disease business.industry Outbreak Articles 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences medicine.disease Geography Transmission (mechanics) Scale (social sciences) Livestock business Regional differences Biotechnology Demography |
| Zdroj: | Interface Focus |
| ISSN: | 2042-8901 2042-8898 |
| Popis: | Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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