Climate and extreme rainfall events in the Mono river basin (West Africa): investigating future changes with Regional Climate Models
| Autor: | Constant Houndenou, Arona Diedhiou, Henri Sourou Totin Vodounon, Salomon Obahoundje, Gil Mahé, Kouakou Kouadio, Ernest Amoussou, Michel Boko, Pierre Camberlin, Hervé Awoye |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Département de Géographie et Aménagement du Territoire, Université de Parakou (UP), Laboratoire Pierre Pagney, Climat, Eau, Ecosystème et Développement (LACEEDE), University of Abomey Calavi (UAC), African Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Development, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny (UFHB), Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] [Dijon] (BGS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, Laboratoire d’Hydraulique et de Maîtrise de l’Eau (LHME), Université d’Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Department of Geography [Calgary], University of Calgary, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère et de Mécanique des Fluides (LPA-MF), Station d'écologie de Lamto, Université Abobo-Adjamé-Centre de Recherche en Ecologie, Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi (UAC), Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
lcsh:Hydraulic engineering
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Geography Planning and Development 0207 environmental engineering Drainage basin ENSEMBLE 02 engineering and technology Aquatic Science 01 natural sciences Biochemistry West africa Ecosystem services lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes lcsh:TC1-978 Natural hazard Precipitation [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology 020701 environmental engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology geography lcsh:TD201-500 geography.geographical_feature_category Flood myth extreme rainfall events Mono basin regional climate models 15. Life on land 13. Climate action [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Climatology Air temperature Environmental science Climate model |
| Zdroj: | Water Water, MDPI, 2020, 12 (3), pp.833. ⟨10.3390/w12030833⟩ Volume 12 Issue 3 Water, Vol 12, Iss 3, p 833 (2020) Water, 2020, 12 (3), pp.833. ⟨10.3390/w12030833⟩ |
| ISSN: | 2073-4441 |
| Popis: | This study characterizes the future changes in extreme rainfall and air temperature in the Mono river basin where the main economic activity is weather dependent and local populations are highly vulnerable to natural hazards, including flood inundations. Daily precipitation and temperature from observational datasets and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) output from REMO, RegCM, HadRM3, and RCA were used to analyze climatic variations in space and time, and fit a GEV model to investigate the extreme rainfalls and their return periods. The results indicate that the realism of the simulated climate in this domain is mainly controlled by the choice of the RCMs. These RCMs projected a 1 to 1.5 ° C temperature increase by 2050 while the projected trends for cumulated precipitation are null or very moderate and diverge among models. Contrasting results were obtained for the intense rainfall events, with RegCM and HadRM3 pointing to a significant increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events. The GEV model is well suited for the prediction of heavy rainfall events although there are uncertainties beyond the 90th percentile. The annual maxima of daily precipitation will also increase by 2050 and could be of benefit to the ecosystem services and socioeconomic activities in the Mono river basin but could also be a threat. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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