Forecasting mortality in subpopulations using Lee-Carter type models: A comparison
| Autor: | Pietro Millossovich, Steven Haberman, Ivan Luciano Danesi |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Danesi, Ivan Luciano, Haberman, Steven, Millossovich, Pietro |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Common period indices
Improvement rates Lee-Carter model Mortality forecasting Related populations Statistics Probability and Uncertainty Economics and Econometrics Statistics and Probability Economics and Econometric Common period indice Population Lee–Carter model HG Goodness of fit Statistics Economics Econometrics education education.field_of_study Mortality rate Improvement rate Lee carter Probability and Uncertainty Related population |
| ISSN: | 0167-6687 |
| Popis: | The relative performance of multipopulation stochastic mortality models is investigated. When targeting mortality rates, we consider five extensions of the well known Lee–Carter single population extrapolative approach. As an alternative, we consider similar structures when mortality improvement rates are targeted. We use a dataset of deaths and exposures of Italian regions for the years 1974–2008 to conduct a comparison of the models, running a battery of tests to assess the relative goodness of fit and forecasting capability of different approaches. Results show that the preferable models are those striking a balance between complexity and flexibility. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect