German Diabetes Risk Score for the Determination of the Individual Type 2 Diabetes Risk: 10-Year Prediction and External Validations
| Autor: | Catarina Schiborn, Rebecca Paprott, Christin Heidemann, Tilman Kühn, Andreas Fritsche, Rudolf Kaaks, Matthias B. Schulze |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Dtsch Arztebl Int Schiborn, C, Paprott, R, Heidemann, C, Kühn, T, Fritsche, A, Kaaks, R & Schulze, M B 2022, ' German diabetes risk score for the determination of the individual type 2 diabetes risk. 10-year prediction and external validations ', Deutsches Arzteblatt international, vol. 119, pp. 651-657 . https://doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0268 |
| Popis: | BACKGROUND: The German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) currently enables prediction of the individual risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) within five years. The aim of this study is to extend the prediction period of the GDRS, including its non-clinical version and its HbA1c extension, to 10 years, and to perform external validation. METHODS: In data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study (n = 25 393), Cox proportional hazards regression was used to reweight the points that were used to calculate the five-year risk. Two population-based prospective cohorts (EPIC-Heidelberg n = 23 624, GNHIES98 cohort n = 3717) were used for external validation. Discrimination was represented by C-indices, and calibration by calibration plots and the expected-to-observed (E/O) ratio. RESULTS: Prediction performance in EPIC-Potsdam was very good (C-index for the non-clinical model: 0.834) and was confirmed in EPIC-Heidelberg (0.843) and in the GNHIES98 cohort (0.851). Among persons in the GNHIES98 cohort with a greater than 10% predicted probability of disease, 14.9% developed T2D within 10 years (positive predictive value). The models were very well calibrated in EPIC-Potsdam (E/O ratio for the non-clinical model: 1.08), slightly overestimated the risk in EPIC-Heidelberg (1.34), and predicted T2D very well in the GNHIES98 cohort after recalibration (1.06). CONCLUSION: The extended GDRS prediction period of 10 years, with a non-clinical version and an HbA1c extension that will soon be available in both German and English, enables the even longer-range, evidence-based identification of high-risk individuals with many different applications, including medical screening. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|