Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future
| Autor: | Zhen-Xi Xu, Jia-Ying Fang, Kun Lin, Xiao-Ling Xu, Kusheng Wu, Wen-Rui Tang, Yang Zeng, Pei-Ling Du |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Rural Population Gerontology China Cancer Research medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent Urban Population Epidemiology Uterine Cervical Neoplasms Young Adult Spatio-Temporal Analysis medicine Humans Mortality Young adult Aged Aged 80 and over Estimation Cervical cancer business.industry Incidence Mortality rate Incidence (epidemiology) Age Factors Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Middle Aged medicine.disease Standardized mortality ratio Oncology Female Rural area business Forecasting Demography |
| Zdroj: | Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention. 16:6391-6396 |
| ISSN: | 1513-7368 1991-2013 |
| DOI: | 10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.15.6391 |
| Popis: | Background To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and methods Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central). |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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