Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts

Autor:	Renate Hagedorn, Jean-Jacques Morcrette, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Tim Palmer
Rok vydání:	2016
Předmět:	Atmospheric composition Standard sample Geophysics Meteorology Greenhouse gas Trend surface analysis Probabilistic logic General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science Initial value problem Atmospheric sciences
DOI:	10.1029/2005gl025061
Popis:	[1] A set of 44-year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal ensemble forecast experiment performed with fixed concentrations. The former shows more realistic temperature variability and better forecast quality. The improvement in model variability is due to a better simulation of climate trends and suggests that realistic initial conditions are not enough to reproduce this long-term variability. The better probabilistic forecast quality is mostly due to the increased ability to reliably discriminate the occurrence of events and non-events. These results are relevant for the improvement of operational seasonal forecasts and provide new evidence of the effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::a1b056a747f526c4821fc8c84b77d52d https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl025061 Zobrazit plný text záznamu