| Autor: |
Renate Hagedorn, Jean-Jacques Morcrette, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Tim Palmer |
| Rok vydání: |
2016 |
| Předmět: |
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| Popis: |
[1] A set of 44-year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal ensemble forecast experiment performed with fixed concentrations. The former shows more realistic temperature variability and better forecast quality. The improvement in model variability is due to a better simulation of climate trends and suggests that realistic initial conditions are not enough to reproduce this long-term variability. The better probabilistic forecast quality is mostly due to the increased ability to reliably discriminate the occurrence of events and non-events. These results are relevant for the improvement of operational seasonal forecasts and provide new evidence of the effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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