Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach
| Autor: | Carles Bretó |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Statistics and Probability Computer science General Mathematics Maximum likelihood Likelihood maximization Inference continuous-time Markov chain Machine learning computer.software_genre Article Lévy-driven stochastic differential equation Continuous-time Markov chain 03 medical and health sciences Overdispersion Statistical inference particle filter business.industry compartment model 030104 developmental biology Infectious disease (medical specialty) iterated filtering Artificial intelligence Statistics Probability and Uncertainty business Particle filter computer environmental stochasticity |
| Zdroj: | Statist. Sci. 33, no. 1 (2018), 57-69 |
| Popis: | Likelihood-based statistical inference has been considered in most scientific fields involving stochastic modeling. This includes infectious disease dynamics, where scientific understanding can help capture biological processes in so-called mechanistic models and their likelihood functions. However, when the likelihood of such mechanistic models lacks a closed-form expression, computational burdens are substantial. In this context, algorithmic advances have facilitated likelihood maximization, promoting the study of novel data-motivated mechanistic models over the last decade. Reviewing these models is the focus of this paper. In particular, we highlight statistical aspects of these models like overdispersion, which is key in the interface between nonlinear infectious disease modeling and data analysis. We also point out potential directions for further model exploration. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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