Pest occurrence model in current climate - validation study for European domain
| Autor: | Daniela Semerádová, Eva Svobodová, Zdeněk Žalud, Petr Štěpánek, Josef Eitzinger, Miroslav Trnka, M. Dubrovský |
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| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
Oulema Climate change Lobesia botrana 01 natural sciences Ostrinia lcsh:Agriculture Rhopalosiphum padi Sitobion avenae climate matching lcsh:QH301-705.5 Leptinotarsa northern range biology Ecology lcsh:S 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences 15. Life on land biology.organism_classification endangered areas 010602 entomology climate change lcsh:Biology (General) CLIMEX 13. Climate action 040103 agronomy & agriculture 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries PEST analysis pests General Agricultural and Biological Sciences |
| Zdroj: | Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Vol 61, Iss 1, Pp 205-214 (2013) Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis |
| ISSN: | 2464-8310 1211-8516 |
| DOI: | 10.11118/actaun201361010205 |
| Popis: | The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verified by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shifts of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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