Challenges in Developing DDDAS based Methodology for Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis – Effect of Numerical Weather Prediction Variability and Parameter Estimation
| Autor: | Reza Madankan, Marcus Bursik, Abani Patra, E. B. Pitman, E. R. Stefanescu, Jon Dehn, Matthew D. Jones, Tarunraj Singh, Peter Webley, Puneet Singla, D. Morton, Michael J. Pavolonis, Solene Pouget |
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| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
DDDAS
0209 industrial biotechnology 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology Estimation theory Computer science 02 engineering and technology Hazard analysis Numerical weather prediction 01 natural sciences Physics::Geophysics 020901 industrial engineering & automation 13. Climate action Volcanic Ash Transport General Earth and Planetary Sciences Uncertainty Quantification Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Simulation 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science Volcanic ash |
| Zdroj: | ICCS |
| ISSN: | 1877-0509 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.procs.2013.05.356 |
| Popis: | In this paper, we will present ongoing work on using a dynamic data driven application system (DDDAS) based approach to the forecast of volcanic ash transport and dispersal. Our primary modeling tool will be a new code puffin formed by the combination of a plume eruption model Bent and the ash transport model Puff. Data from satellite imagery, observation of vent parameters and windfields will drive our simulations. We will use ensemble based uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation methodology – polynomial chaos quadrature in combination with data integration to complete the DDDAS loop. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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