Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity

Autor: Raphaël De Cock, St. Klotz, Regula Billeter, Jana Verboom, N. Schermann, St. Aviron, M. Roubalova, Tim Diekötter, Petra Šímová, Jacques Baudry, J.P. Maelfait, Paul Arens, Walter K. R. E. van Wingerden, Frederik Hendrickx, Marinus J. M. Smulders, Agnès Schermann-Legionnet, Carsten F. Dormann, Mark Frenzel, R. Hamersky, F. Herzog, Oliver Schweiger, Jaan Liira, Rob Bugter, Walter Durka, J. Dirksen, M. Speelmans, Françoise Burel, T. Schmidt, I. Augenstein, Angela Lausch, Debra Bailey, B.J.H. Koolstra, M. Cerny, Paul Opdam, Martin Zobel, Geert De Blust, D. Le Coeur, R. DeFilippi, Roman Bukacek, Peter J. Edwards
Přispěvatelé: Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Plant Research International (PRI), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroscope FAL Reckenholz (AGROSCOPE), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] (ECOBIO), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Unité de recherche SAD Armorique (AMORIQUE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Centre Armoricain de Recherche en Environnement (CAREN), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Alterra Green World Research (AGWR), Nature Conservation Authority (NCA), Nature Conservation Authority, Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research (IFER), Institute of Foret Ecosystem Research, INBO - Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), INBO, Institute of Integrative Biology (ETH), Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC) (TEREC), State University of Ghent, Institut de minéralogie et de physique des milieux condensés (IMPMC), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-IPG PARIS-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PaleoEnvironnements et PaleobioSphere (PEPS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut für Geowissenschaften, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Institute of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Institute of Botany and Ecology, University of Tartu, GREENVEINS (projet europeen), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), INRA SAD Armorique, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, INRA-SAD Armorique, Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Rennes (UR)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2008
Předmět:
0106 biological sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Environmental change
Climate
distributions
Biodiversity
Landgebruiksplanning
envelope
01 natural sciences
multimodel inference
PRI Biodiversiteit en Veredeling
Wageningen Environmental Research
species richness
uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty analysis
Geography
Ecology
environmental change
Plants
Europe
communities
climate change
climate-change
Gamma diversity
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes
Climate change
projection
extinction risk
Environment
010603 evolutionary biology
Models
Biological
Birds
agricultural landscapes
models
Landscape Centre
cover data
Land Use Planning
Animals
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces
environment
land-use intensity
Arthropods
Ecology
Evolution
Behavior and Systematics
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
WIMEK
Alterra - Centrum Landschap
Species diversity
Global change
15. Life on land
PRI Biodiversity and Breeding
13. Climate action
Environmental science
Species richness
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Zdroj: Ecology Letters
Ecology Letters, Wiley, 2008, 11 (3), pp.235-244. ⟨10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01142.x⟩
Ecology Letters, 2008, 11 (3), pp.235-244. ⟨10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01142.x⟩
Ecology Letters 11 (2008) 3
Ecology Letters, 11(3), 235-244
ISSN: 1461-023X
1461-0248
Popis: FR2116; International audience; Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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