The hot hand in professional darts
| Autor: | Roland Langrock, Christian Deutscher, Vianey Leos-Barajas, Marius Ötting |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
FOS: Computer and information sciences
Statistics and Probability Hidden Markov model Economics and Econometrics ddc:519 Sports statistics Time series State-space representation Computer science Process (computing) Statistics - Applications Hot hand Econometrics State space Applications (stat.AP) Tournament Statistics Probability and Uncertainty Proxy (statistics) Social Sciences (miscellaneous) Serial dependence Throwing State space model |
| Popis: | Summary We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto-regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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