Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium
| Autor: | S. Abbas Khan, Regine Hock, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Martin Truffer, Andy Aschwanden, Constantine Khroulev, Ruth Mottram, Mark Fahnestock |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Climatology
geography Multidisciplinary geography.geographical_feature_category 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Greenland ice sheet Ice calving SciAdv r-articles Glacier Fjord 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Current (stream) Ice-sheet model 13. Climate action Greenhouse gas SDG 13 - Climate Action Physical geography Sea level Geology Research Articles 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Aschwanden, A, Fahnestock, M A, Truffer, M, Brinkerhoff, D J, Hock, R, Khroulev, C, Mottram, R & Khan, S A 2019, ' Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium ', Science Advances, vol. 5, no. 6, eaav9396 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396 Science Advances |
| Popis: | Simulations show that the Greenland Ice Sheet could disappear within a millennium if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier–resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland’s contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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