The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball
| Autor: | Brett S. Green, Jeffrey Zwiebel |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Basketball
Strategy and Management 05 social sciences Inference behavioral economics Management Science and Operations Research League Behavioral economics 01 natural sciences Test (assessment) hot hand 010104 statistics & probability 0502 economics and business Streakiness 050207 economics 0101 mathematics Predictability Psychology Hot-hand fallacy Cognitive psychology Panel data |
| Zdroj: | Green, BS; & Zwiebel, J. (2017). The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball. UC Berkeley: Retrieved from: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/1nf7w0w8 |
| Popis: | We test for a “hot hand” (i.e., short-term predictability in performance) in Major League Baseball using panel data. We find strong evidence for its existence in all 10 statistical categories we consider. The magnitudes are significant; being “hot” corresponds to between one-half and one standard deviation in the distribution of player abilities. Our results are in notable contrast to the majority of the hot-hand literature, which has generally found either no hot hand or a very weak hot hand in sports, often employing basketball shooting data. We argue that this difference is attributable to endogenous defensive responses: basketball presents sufficient opportunity for transferring defensive resources to equate shooting probabilities across players, whereas baseball does not. We then develop a method to test whether baseball teams do respond appropriately to hot opponents. Our results suggest teams respond in a manner consistent with drawing correct inference about the magnitude of the hot hand except for a tendency to overreact to very recent performance (i.e., the last five attempts). The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2804 . This paper was accepted by Amit Seru, finance. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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