Connecting Risk and Resilience for a Power System Using the Portland Hills Fault Case Study
| Autor: | Rob Weik, James Newell, Ann Radil, Jennifer Galaway, Darin Johnson, King Chin, Ted K.A. Brekken, Vishvas Chalishazar, Emilie Dierickx, Kent Yu, Andrey Olennikov, Matthew Craven, Maty Sauter |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Peak ground acceleration
Earthquake engineering power transmission system Computer science 020209 energy 0211 other engineering and technologies Bioengineering Sample (statistics) 02 engineering and technology peak ground acceleration lcsh:Chemical technology Fault (power engineering) lcsh:Chemistry monte carlo simulations Electric power system economic risk analysis 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Chemical Engineering (miscellaneous) Retrofitting lcsh:TP1-1185 Resilience (network) 021110 strategic defence & security studies seismic resilience Process Chemistry and Technology Seismic loading Reliability engineering lcsh:QD1-999 |
| Zdroj: | Processes Volume 8 Issue 10 Processes, Vol 8, Iss 1200, p 1200 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2227-9717 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/pr8101200 |
| Popis: | Active seismic faults in the Pacific Northwest area have encouraged electric utilities in the region to deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. To further this effort this research introduces Monte Carlo (MC)-based power system modeling as a means to inform the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering method and simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland Hills Fault (PHF) scenario in the Portland General Electric (PGE) service territory as a proof of concept. This paper also proposes the resilience metric Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) to quantify the recovery of a downed power system and thus can be used to quantify earthquake economic risk. Using MC results, the SLRF was evaluated to be 19.7 h and the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was found to be $180 million with an annualized risk of $90,000 given the event&rsquo s 1 in 2000 year probability of occurrence. The MC results also identified the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system&mdash i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss. This paper concludes that retrofitting these substations reduced the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event to $117 million. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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