Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak

Autor: Hugo Flores-Arguedas, Fernando Saldaña, Ignacio Barradas, José Ariel Camacho-Gutiérrez
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Isolation (health care)
Pneumonia
Viral
Psychological intervention
02 engineering and technology
control strategies
Models
Biological
law.invention
Patient Isolation
Betacoronavirus
basic reproduction number
law
0502 economics and business
Pandemic
Quarantine
QA1-939
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Humans
Computer Simulation
Epidemics
Mexico
Pandemics
Infection Control
Public economics
SARS-CoV-2
Applied Mathematics
Social distance
05 social sciences
Outbreak
Bayes Theorem
Mathematical Concepts
General Medicine
Disinfection
Computational Mathematics
epidemic model
Geography
covid-19
Modeling and Simulation
020201 artificial intelligence & image processing
Coronavirus Infections
parameter estimation
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Epidemic model
Basic reproduction number
TP248.13-248.65
Mathematics
050203 business & management
Biotechnology
Zdroj: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 17, Iss 4, Pp 4165-4183 (2020)
ISSN: 1551-0018
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020231
Popis: In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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