A statistical downscaling approach for generating high spatial resolution health risk maps: a case study of road noise and ischemic heart disease mortality in Melbourne, Australia

Autor: Martine Dennekamp, Ben Hinze, Yohannes Kinfu, Timothy B. Chaston, Bin Jalaludin, Geoffrey G. Morgan, Ivan Hanigan
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
medicine.medical_specialty
General Computer Science
Victoria
Health geography
Population
Myocardial Ischemia
Geographic Mapping
lcsh:Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Risk Factors
Environmental health
Risk of mortality
medicine
Humans
cardiovascular diseases
030212 general & internal medicine
Mortality
education
Exposure–response function
Statistical downscaling
education.field_of_study
030505 public health
Public health
Traffic noise
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Absolute risk reduction
Methodology
Environmental health risk assessment
Environmental Exposure
General Business
Management and Accounting
Noise
Geography
Noise
Transportation
Data Interpretation
Statistical
Geographic Information Systems
lcsh:R858-859.7
0305 other medical science
Downscaling
Zdroj: International Journal of Health Geographics
International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019)
ISSN: 1476-072X
Popis: Introduction Road traffic noise increases the risk of mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD). Because noise is highly localized, high resolution maps of exposures and health outcomes are key to urban planning interventions that are informed by health risks. In Australia, publicly accessible IHD deaths data are only available at the coarse spatial aggregation level of local government area (LGA), in which about 130,000 people reside. Herein, we addressed this limitation of health data using statistical downscaling and generated environmental health risk maps for noise at the meshblock level (MB; ~ 90 people). Methods We estimated noise exposures at the MB level using a model of road traffic noise in Melbourne, Australia, from 2011. As recommended by the World Health Organization, a non-linear exposure–response function for traffic noise and IHD was used to calculate odds ratios for noise related IHD in all MBs. Noise attributable risks of IHD death were then estimated by statistically downscaling LGA-level IHD rates to the MB level. Results Noise levels of 80 dB were recorded in some MBs. From the given noise maps, approximately 5% of the population was exposed to traffic noise above the risk threshold of 55 dB. Maps of excess risk at the MB level identified areas in which noise levels and exposed populations are large. Attributable rates of IHD deaths due to noise were generally very low, but some were as high as 5–10 per 100,000, and in extremely noisy and populated MBs represented more than 8% excess risk of IHD death. We presented results as interactive maps of excess risk due to noise at the small neighbourhood scale. Conclusion Our method accommodates low-resolution health data and could be used to inform urban planning and public health decision making for various environmental health concerns. Estimated noise related IHD deaths were relatively few in Melbourne in 2011, likely because road traffic is one of many noise sources and the current noise model underestimates exposures. Nonetheless, this novel computational framework could be used globally to generate maps of noise related health risks using scant health outcomes data.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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