Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress; A Proposed Set of Indicators
| Autor: | James McHugh, Iva Petrova, Emanuele Baldacci |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2011 |
| Předmět: |
Macroeconomics
Solvency Index (economics) Economic policy media_common.quotation_subject health care facilities manpower and services Vulnerability social sciences Fiscal policy Debt Economics Position (finance) Fiscal sustainability Emerging markets Fiscal indicators Fiscal vulnerability fiscal stress public debt fiscal variables National Deficit Surplus Studies of Particular Policy Episodes General Outlook and Conditions health care economics and organizations media_common |
| Popis: | This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|