How can a cause-of-death reduction be compensated for by the population heterogeneity? A dynamic approach
| Autor: | Sarah Kaakai, Héloïse Labit Hardy, Séverine Arnold, Nicole El Karoui |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Laboratoire Manceau de Mathématiques (LMM), Le Mans Université (UM), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Département de Sciences Actuarielles, Université de Lausanne, Université de Lausanne (UNIL), Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistiques et Modélisations (LPSM (UMR_8001)), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Kaakai, Sarah |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Economics and Econometrics Deprivation Population dynamics Population Public policy Mortality heterogeneity [SHS.DEMO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Demography 01 natural sciences Deprivation index Cause-of-death mortality Cohort effects Reduction (complexity) 010104 statistics & probability 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Cohort Effect 030212 general & internal medicine 0101 mathematics education Set (psychology) Socioeconomic status Cause of death education.field_of_study [SHS.DEMO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Demography [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation Geography Cohort effect [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie Cohort Demographic economics [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation Statistics Probability and Uncertainty Heterogeneity |
| Popis: | A growing number of studies indicate a widening of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality over the past decades. It has therefore become crucially important to understand the impact of heterogeneity and its evolution on the future mortality of heterogeneous populations. In particular, recent developments in multi-population mortality have raised a number of questions, among which is the issue of evaluating cause-of-death reduction targets set by national and international institutions in the presence of heterogeneity. The aim of this paper is to show how the study of the population data and the population dynamics framework contribute to addressing these issues, by providing a new viewpoint on the evolution of aggregate mortality indicators in the presence of heterogeneity. Our findings rely on two datasets on the English population and cause-specific number of deaths by socioeconomic circumstances, over the period 1981-2015. The analysis of the data first highlights the complexity of recent demographic developments, characterized by significant composition changes in the population, with considerable variations according to the age class or cohort, along with a widening of socioeconomic inequalities. We then introduce a dynamic framework for studying the impact of composition changes on the mortality of the global population. In particular, we are interested in quantifying the impacts of cause-of-death mortality reduction in comparison with changes of composition in a heterogeneous population. We show how a cause of death reduction could be compensated for in the presence of heterogeneity, which could lead to misinterpretations when assessing public policies impacts and/or for the forecasting of future trends. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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