Quantification of Seasonal Precipitation over the upper Chao Phraya River Basin in the Past Fifty Years Based on Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation Related Climate Indices
| Autor: | Tsuyoshi Kinouchi, Winai Liengcharernsit, Gakuji Yamamoto, Atchara Komsai |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Index (economics)
lcsh:Hydraulic engineering 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology Geography Planning and Development Drainage basin 02 engineering and technology Aquatic Science Monsoon 01 natural sciences Biochemistry lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes lcsh:TC1-978 Indian Monsoon Precipitation 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Monsoon of South Asia geography lcsh:TD201-500 geography.geographical_feature_category Anomaly (natural sciences) Regression analysis upper Chao Phraya River Basin seasonal rainfall 020801 environmental engineering Water resources Climatology El Niño/Southern Oscillation Environmental science sea surface temperatures |
| Zdroj: | Water, Vol 10, Iss 6, p 800 (2018) Water Volume 10 Issue 6 |
| ISSN: | 2073-4441 |
| Popis: | For better water resources management, we proposed a method to estimate basin-scale seasonal rainfall over selected areas of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, from existing climate indices that represent variations in the Asian summer monsoon, the El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation, and sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean. The basin-scale seasonal rainfall between 1965 and 2015 was calculated for the upper Ping River Basin (PRB) and the upper Nan River Basin (NRB) from a gridded rainfall dataset and rainfall data collected at several gauging stations. The corresponding climate indices, i.e., the Equatorial-Southern Oscillation Index (EQ-SOI), Indian Monsoon Index (IMI), and SST-related indices, were examined to quantify seasonal rainfall. Based on variations in the rainfall anomaly and each climate index, we found that IMI is the primary variable that can explain variations in seasonal rainfall when EQ-SOI is negative. Through a multiple regression analysis, we found that EQ-SOI and two SST-related indices, i.e., Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO) and SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific (SSTNW), can quantify the seasonal rainfall for years with positive EQ-SOI. The seasonal rainfall calculated for 1975 to 2015 based on the proposed method was highly correlated with the observed rainfall, with correlation coefficients of 0.8 and 0.86 for PRB and NRB, respectively. These results suggest that the existing indices are useful for quantifying basin-scale seasonal rainfall, provided a proper classification and combination of the climate indices are introduced. The developed method could forecast seasonal rainfall over the target basins if well-forecasted climate indices are provided with sufficient leading time. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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