Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary
| Autor: | Francesco Cioffi, Upmanu Lall, Kytt MacManus, Federico Rosario Conticello, Nickitas Georgas, Philip M. Orton, Timothy M. Hall, Alan F. Blumberg |
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| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Floods Hudson River sea level rise storm surge tidal river tropical cyclones 0207 environmental engineering Storm surge 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Streamflow Tributary Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Extratropical cyclone Tidal river 020701 environmental engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Hydrology geography geography.geographical_feature_category Storm Sea surface temperature geography.body_of_water Storm track |
| Zdroj: | Natural Hazards. 102:729-757 |
| ISSN: | 1573-0840 0921-030X |
| Popis: | Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland “wet extratropical” cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931–2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by ~ 30–60% at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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