Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity : A scenario analysis
| Autor: | Mar Cabeza, Jelle G. Van Minnen, Jan E. Vermaat, Carl Beierkuhnlein, Michiel F. WallisDeVries, James S. Paterson, Christian K. Feld, Luigi Boitani, Regula Billeter, Brian Huntley, Astrid J.A. van Teeffelen, Fritz Hellmann, Rob Alkemade |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Earth and Climate |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Odonata 017-3997 Geography Planning and Development Biodiversity 01 natural sciences 016-3982 Land use land-use change and forestry Theoretical model Laboratory of Entomology Land use change 2. Zero hunger education.field_of_study Ecology General Medicine Plants PE&RC Europe Geography Dry grasslands Wetland SRES scenario articulation Butterflies Biologie Climate Change Population Species sensitivity database Climate change Habitat connectivity 010603 evolutionary biology Birds Bird Report Environmental Chemistry Animals 577: Ökologie education Dry grassland 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Butterfly Land use Animal Climate envelope modelling Plant 15. Life on land Models Theoretical Laboratorium voor Entomologie Environmental niche modelling 13. Climate action Wetlands Threatened species Species richness |
| Zdroj: | Ambio 46 (2017) 3 Ambio, 2017, Vol.46(3), pp.277-290 [Peer Reviewed Journal] AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 46(3), 277-290. Allen Press Inc. Ambio Vermaat, J E, Hellmann, F A, van Teeffelen, A, van Minnen, J, Alkemade, R, Billeter, R, Beierkuhnlein, C, Boitani, L, Cabeza, M, Feld, C K, Huntley, B, Paterson, J & WallisDeVries, M F 2017, ' Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis ', AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 277-290 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0840-3 Ambio, 46(3), 277-290 |
| ISSN: | 0044-7447 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s13280-016-0840-3 |
| Popis: | Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (http://www.nationallizenzen.ch) Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50%). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50% of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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