Modeling the Impact of High Temperature on Mortality in Pakistan
| Autor: | Mushtaq Ahmad Khan Barakzai, S.M. Aqil Burney |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
Environmental effects of industries and plants
Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Geography Planning and Development TJ807-830 climate risk Management Monitoring Policy and Law generalized linear models TD194-195 mortality Renewable energy sources climate change Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability, Vol 14, Iss 332, p 332 (2022) Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 1; Pages: 332 |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| Popis: | The objective of this paper is to model and study the impact of high temperature on mortality in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used mortality and climate data consisting of maximum temperature, variation in monthly temperature, average rainfall, humidity, dewpoint, as well as average air pressure in the country over the period from 2000 to 2019. We have used the Generalized Linear Model with Quasi-Poisson link function to model the number of deaths in the country and to assess the impact of maximum temperature on mortality. We have found that the maximum temperature in the country has a significant impact on mortality. The number of deaths in Pakistan increases as the maximum temperature increases. We found that, as the maximum temperature increase beyond 30 °C, mortality increases significantly. Our results indicate that mortality increases by 27% when the maximum temperature in the country increases from medium category to a very high level. Similarly, the number of deaths in the country increases by 11% when the temperature increases from medium temperature to high level. Furthermore, our study found that when the maximum temperature in the country decreases from a medium level to a low level, the number of deaths in the country decreases by 23%. This study does not consider the impact of other factors on mortality, such as age, medical conditions, gender, geographical location, as well as variability of temperature across the country. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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